Analysis of the ATP Finals: Alcaraz goes for one of his major titles still pending

The ATP Finals are just around the corner. From Sunday, November 15 to Sunday, November 22, the 8 best players of the season will gather in Turin to compete in one of the most prestigious tournaments of the year, so it is important to conduct a thorough analysis to understand the state each player will be in as they face one of the big titles missing fromCarlos Alcaraz to add to his achievements. 

Due to Jannik Sinner's knee injury, the 8 tennis players competing in the tournament will be Alexander Zverev, Carlos Alcaraz, Ben Shelton, Daniil Medvedev, Flavio Cobolli, Arthur Fils, Frances Tiafoe, and Rafa Jódar. 11 years later, Spain will have two representatives in the Masters Cup, and each of these players arrives in different conditions for a very open tournament where there are several candidates to be crowned champion.

Alexander Zverev, defending his role as world number 1

Obviously, all eyes will be on Zverev. The German player has had the best season of his career, winning his first two Grand Slams (Roland Garros and US Open) and fulfilling his dream of being world number 1. At first glance, it seems that he will be the main rival to beat, but the truth is that his end-of-season has raised some doubts following his first-round loss at the ATP Paris against Musetti.

The German recently complained that he is the only number 1 in history who has had to explain why he deserves to be the leader of the ATP rankings, since some attribute his successes to the injuries during Alcaraz and Sinner's season. This could play against him, as well as his poor statistics against top 10 rivals in 2026 (3 wins and 9 losses), although it's worth noting that he has already won the ATP Finals twice.

Alcaraz and a date with history

In a completely different situation, Alcaraz arrives, as after winning consecutively at ATP Vienna and ATP Paris, he is the main favorite to lift the title. In April, the Spanish player suffered a serious wrist injury that kept him away from the circuit for almost 5 months, but he has returned with a bang and regained his best form in recent weeks, having lost only two matches since his return at the US Open (Ben Shelton at the US Open and Zizou Bergs in Shanghai).

Moreover, the Spanish player became earlier this year the youngest player to complete the 'Career Grand Slam' after winning the Australian Open, so now his goal is to win the ATP Finals and achieve the other major title he lacks individually. If he succeeds, his only outstanding task would be the Davis Cup, which he could win at the end of the month, along with the ATP events in Shanghai and Canada to complete the Masters 1000. All of this at just 23 years old.

Be cautious with Shelton

Ben Shelton could be the dark horse of this tournament. The American player has had a rather inconsistent season, where he has lifted 4 titles (Munich, Stuttgart, Dallas, and Montreal) and reached his first Grand Slam final at the US Open, but he has also had forgettable weeks where he lost in major tournaments right from the start. However, on an indoor hard court like in Turin, if he serves well, he can beat anyone, and after reaching the final at ATP Paris, he comes in with confidence.

Additionally, Juan Carlos Ferrero, his new coach, will be present in Turin for several days, and he has recently confessed that he has already given some advice to start working together before 2027 begins and they get to work on this new partnership. Therefore, he should be included in the favorites as long as he maintains consistency and is aggressive enough to overwhelm his rivals with his style of play.

The mystery of Medvedev

One of the most unpredictable players in this group is Daniil Medvedev, as he is capable of both the best and the worst. The Russian player, former world number 1, is the only one on this list along with Zverev and Alcaraz who has the experience of winning a Grand Slam, but he is not having his best period. However, in the latter part of the year, he has achieved great results, and if he is focused, he is fully capable of lifting a title he already won in 2020.

This year, Medvedev has won the tournaments in Hangzhou, Dubai, Brisbane, and Almaty, and hard courts are his specialty. His mind can remain calm and crush any player or go off the rails and generate chaos on the court, so everything will depend on the version he wants to bring to Turin.

Cobolli, the most erratic

With Flavio Cobolli, you never know what can happen. The Italian player has had his best season in 2026, as he has finished as number 6 in the world and has qualified for the ATP Finals for the first time. However, a statistic has emerged that makes him the only top 10 player of this century who has lost more points than he has won during the season, clearly showing how inconsistent his matches and results are. Just as he is capable of reaching the final of Roland Garros or winning an ATP 500, it is also possible that he loses against a player outside the top 50 the following week.

To make matters worse, he withdrew from ATP Vienna a few weeks ago in tears during his match against Matteo Berrettini, so he will arrive feeling fragile. However, it’s worth noting that Flavio is playing at home, and if the crowd cheers him on, he can be a dangerous opponent for anyone if he shows his best level.

Fils, the dark horse of the ATP Finals?

Arthur Fils is one of the players with the most buzz in this edition. 2026 has been the year of definitive establishment for the Frenchman, lifting the ATP 500 in Barcelona, the ATP in Cincinnati, and establishing himself in the top 10 at just 22 years old. His biggest rival remains his physique, which has held him back on more than one occasion in recent seasons, as he is a joy to watch at his best.

If he is at 100% in Turin, there is no doubt he will make headlines. He is a player who always performs well in such tournaments, provides entertainment, and wins over the crowd quickly, so he could easily advance from the group stage if he manages to find his game now that he has proven to himself what he is capable of.

Tiafoe arrives with many doubts

The player who arrives possibly in the worst form is Frances Tiafoe, who has ended the year stacking losses and falling early in practically all tournaments since reaching the semifinals at the US Open. In fact, he has won only two matches since then. It is true that he has regained his best level at certain times during the season, has won the title in Halle, and reached the final in Cincinnati, but expectations are not very high.

That said, like Fils, Tiafoe is a player who thrives in these situations, and it only takes a couple of magical points for him to change his mindset and become a threat. If he plays aggressively from the baseline and surprises with his net approaches and drop shots, he should not be counted out, but it would be very unusual to see him win more than one match in this edition.

Jódar makes history and has nothing to lose

Undoubtedly, the biggest surprise of this edition is Jódar. The 20-year-old Spanish player had complicated his qualification for the ATP Finals after losing to Casper Ruud in Paris, but the agonizing victory of Alcaraz over Fritz has allowed him to make history and become the first player to enter the Masters Cup in his first year on the circuit. Additionally, a few weeks ago, he also became the player who has needed the least time to break into the top 10.

In his first complete season at the ATP level, Jódar has exceeded all expectations. He has reached his first Masters 1000 final in Shanghai, has become a regular in the final rounds of major tournaments, and has won his first ATP title in Marrakech. Furthermore, the young Spanish player arrives with nothing to lose, which will free him from any pressure and could allow him to make a surprise and advance from the group stage.

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