Analysis of the Vienna final: Can De Miñaur stop Alcaraz's magic?
The Spanish tennis player will face the Australian in search of a new ATP 500, with the condition that Alex has never beaten him in their 6 encounters.
This Sunday, November 1, Carlos Alcaraz and Alex De Miñaur will compete in the final of ATP Vienna. The Spanish tennis player has been playing at an excellent level throughout the week, while the Australian player surprised everyone by eliminating Alexander Zverev in the semifinals, paving his way to the ATP Finals in Turin. There is much more at stake than just a title, so a thorough analysis of the match is necessary.
The first thing to highlight is Carlos's level throughout the week, which has possibly been his best tournament since returning from his wrist injury that kept him out of the circuit for 4 months. He has defeated players like Karen Khachanov, Tommy Paul, and Daniil Medvedev without dropping a single set, achieving impossible points and showcasing his full repertoire of skills. Unbeatable from the baseline, a rock on defense, lobs, volleys... the week of the player from Murcia has been absolutely complete.
De Miñaur, however, had to endure from his debut, as he had to come back against Tomas Machac. However, from that moment on, he was able to show his best level against players like Learner Tien or Matteo Berrettini on a fast indoor court that perfectly fits his conditions. And the cherry on top came in the semifinals against Alexander Zverev, who will be ranked number 1 in the world starting this Monday. Just like at the Laver Cup, the Australian player achieved a crucial victory over the German, which boosts his morale heading into tomorrow's final.
The head-to-head does not favor De Miñaur
The options for the Australian player lie in being a rock from the baseline and withstanding Alcaraz's attacks until he makes a mistake, something he usually excels at as one of the best defenders on the circuit. This Sunday, De Miñaur will need to keep running and frustrate Carlos, who has sometimes rushed in his matches today against Medvedev.
For the Spanish player, he should have the upper hand given how he has been playing, so the ideal scenario would be to maintain the same line as throughout the week and move up to the net when he draws De Miñaur off the court. Additionally, Carlos has the advantage, having defeated him in all 6 encounters. It is true that 3 of those 6 matches went to 3 sets and were very contested, but Alcaraz has the moral edge.
Alcaraz can do a favor for Jódar
Moreover, an Alcaraz victory would also be great news for Spanish tennis in general, as De Miñaur is battling for a spot in the ATP Finals in Turin, and Rafa Jódar and Novak Djokovic are right on his heels. If Alex wins against Alcaraz, Jódar and Djokovic would compete for the last slot for Turin alongside other names like Taylor Fritz or Tommy Paul in ATP Paris, but if the Australian loses, everything will tighten up much more.
Seen from another perspective, this could also provide extra motivation for De Miñaur, who knows he has the chance to break into the top 8 of the circuit to make a statement after a season filled with ups and downs in which he has alternated between great tournaments and painful defeats that have filled him with doubt.
This is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Análisis de la final de Viena: ¿Podrá De Miñaur frenar la magia de Alcaraz?