Analysis of Alcaraz vs Shelton: Can Ben make a big impact?
The American will challenge Carlos in what is considered by many to be the best quarterfinal match. What to expect from this duel?
The magical nights of the Arthur Ashe are about to live a new chapter, featuring in this edition Carlos Alcaraz and Ben Shelton. Two true heavyweights will face off for a spot in the semifinals of the US Open 2026: it’s a collision of titans, one of those matchups where, perhaps, the two main favorites for the title (with all due respect to Sascha Zverev) meet in an earlier round than their level indicates. Will Ben be able to strike big and confirm that he is ready to conquer a Grand Slam? Will Carlitos maintain his superb level against the tallest opponent in his section of the draw?
These are questions that will be answered tonight, although perhaps the ball is in the American's court. It will be Ben who will have to adjust new pieces and hit new keys against a rival he has yet to beat on the circuit: the level Carlos is showing gives him clear favoritism, and his incredible winning streak in Grand Slams on hard courts has not been diminished by his inactivity following the wrist injury.
Can Ben Shelton overcome Carlos Alcaraz in the quarterfinals of the US Open 2026?
Carlos has not been the best opponent for the American historically: they competed closely a couple of seasons ago, at Roland Garros, but the explosiveness and physique of the Murcian made the difference in a match for which Shelton, however, was not as prepared as he is now. After El Palmar, he may be the one showing the best tennis, crushing the ball, with immense confidence in his serve and a steadfast mindset that helps him through many pressure moments.
Capable of winning tightly contested matches, this wave of confidence will have to propel Ben several meters if he wants to beat Carlitos. Tactically, the commandments seem very clear: be excellent with his first serve, ensuring he inflicts damage and winning a significant share of points with it, denying Carlos the chance to get into too much rhythm from the back of the court; frequently finding his forehand, hitting it full force, risking the slice even if necessary... and changing as much as possible with the parallel backhand, knowing that the Murcian will boldly seek his backhand.
Alcaraz is the clear favorite to win the title, and he wants to prove it
The version we saw of the Murcian in the match against Tommy Paul is, in itself, a competitive argument more than enough to think of the title. There is no one in the draw who has reached such a level, showing a comprehensive game and negating all of the American's virtues: against Shelton, his ability to get a lot of returns in will be key to mitigate Ben's offensives, strip him of confidence in his best shot, and be able to redirect, two or three shots later, the rally to his backhand side.
«Do I feel capable of winning the tournament? I maintain the same expectations, with the same mentality, knowing that every time I step onto the court is a gift»
This is what Alcaraz really said.
pic.twitter.com/LU2KhALbR0— Germán R. Abril (@gerebit0) September 7, 2026
The mean usage of the forehand by Shelton is around 58%: if Alcaraz can get that number to come from his backhand side, the match will clearly tilt in his favor. The script to achieve this is clear, opening good angles with his forehand from the return, seeking depth on the first two shots, and finding defense-to-attack transitions to finish off Shelton. It’s a match in which he will need his physique, mainly due to a question of explosiveness: his serve, the area he has wobbled most in this tournament, will not find the pressure that other returners might apply, being an area in which Ben still has a lot of room for improvement.
Perhaps that will completely free Alcaraz, who usually responds like no one else to the pressure of the crowd, who thrives in matches where the show is guaranteed and who shouldn’t find playing “as a visitor” a limiting factor. For Shelton, this match could define the coming months of his career: if he wants to deliver the big blow, he must maintain motivation at 200% throughout the duel, find his serve at crucial moments (watch out for possible tiebreaks), and engage the crowd to lift him up. The challenge is monumental, but others have experienced a similar moment... and if there’s one thing Ben has, it’s ambition and motivation to seize it. Grab the popcorn and enjoy the show.
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