Rybakina could become number 1 in the WTA ranking without playing the 2026 US Open
Kazakhstan is in a privileged position to take the number 1 spot from Sabalenka at the 2026 US Open, a title that Pegula and Gauff will also be vying for.
The calculations to determine which tennis player will emerge from the US Open 2026 deserve analysis, as the streak of Aryna Sabalenka at the top of the WTA ranking, which stands at 96 consecutive weeks, will be challenged by Elena Rybakina, while Jessica Pegula and Cori Gauff also have mathematical chances to leave New York as number 1 in the world.
A firm threat looms over Aryna Sabalenka, putting the Belarusian between a rock and a hard place at a US Open 2026 where, if she is unable to react and end the negative spiral of play, results, and feelings in which she is immersed, she could find herself displaced from the number 1 spot in the WTA ranking. After months of watching the gap with Elena Rybakina narrow, the situation is now very favorable for the Kazakh player, who even if she didn't compete in the tournament due to discomfort in her heel, would still have serious chances of rising as the best player in the world.
The points with which they will start the US Open
In order to streamline the calculations and analyze the situation in a very visual way, it is convenient to subtract the points corresponding to their performances from last year. It can be said that they will start the US Open 2026 with these scores, with Sabalenka being the one most pressured as she defends her title from last year, while all her rivals have minimal defenses.
Thus, the four will start the US Open with:
Sabalenka: 8,575 - 2,000 = 6,575.
Rybakina: 8,141 - 240 = 7,901.
Pegula: 7,265 - 780 = 6,485.
Gauff: 6,704 - 240 = 6,464.
A Grand Slam score will be 2,000 for the champion, 1,300 for the runner-up, 780 for the semifinalists, 430 for the quarterfinals, 240 for the round of 16, 130 for the third round, 70 for the second, and 10 for the first.
| Result | Sabalenka | Rybakina | Pegula | Gauff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Did not play | 6,575 | 7,901 | 6,485 | 6,464 |
| 1st round | 6,585 | 7,911 | 6,495 | 6,474 |
| 2nd round | 6,645 | 7,971 | 6,555 | 6,534 |
| 3rd round | 6,705 | 8,031 | 6,615 | 6,594 |
| Round of 16 | 6,815 | 8,141 | 6,725 | 6,704 |
| Quarterfinals | 7,005 | 8,331 | 6,915 | 6,894 |
| Semifinals | 7,355 | 8,681 | 7,265 | 7,244 |
| Final | 7,875 | 9,201 | 7,785 | 7,764 |
| Champion | 8,575 | 9,901 | 8,485 | 8,464 |
Rybakina, the top favorite to emerge as number 1
The Kazakh is the only one who can secure the number 1 spot without relying on any other results. If she reaches the semifinals, she will accumulate 8,681 points, a figure that already exceeds the 8,575 Sabalenka would have even if she wins the US Open.
And there is an even more extraordinary possibility: Rybakina could become number 1 without playing the US Open. If she were to withdraw, she would remain at 7,901 points. This score would be enough to surpass Sabalenka if the Belarusian does not win the title and also to surpass Pegula and Gauff even if either reaches the final.
The big unknown is precisely her physical condition after withdrawing in Cincinnati against Iga Swiatek due to a problem with her heel that could jeopardize her participation in the tournament. Therefore, in the worst-case scenario for her, which would be withdrawing from the tournament, she would still have many chances to be number 1 at the end of the US Open.
Sabalenka needs to defend her crown
The situation for Aryna Sabalenka is highly pressured. Her current poor form is generating competitive stress in a woman who has not been herself for months, and now she faces the fact that she needs a great performance to remain as number 1.
Only by winning the title would she gain some peace of mind, although the ability to remain at the top of the ranking wouldn't necessarily be in her hands, as if Rybakina reaches the semifinals, Sabalenka's title would render her number 1 status meaningless.
Gauff and Pegula: an extraordinary gamble
The two Americans have a much more complicated situation, but they hold mathematical options. Everything hinges on winning the tournament, as any other result would leave them behind Rybakina. If either were to lift the title, they would also need the Kazakh not to reach the semifinals.
In conclusion, the outlook is perfectly clear: Rybakina holds the key, Sabalenka needs to defend her crown, and Gauff and Pegula need to win their first US Open to aspire to number 1. Four players remain mathematically alive, but the Kazakh starts with an extraordinary advantage and could even reach the top without lifting the trophy in New York. The excitement at the US Open 2026 is set.
This is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Rybakina podría ser número 1 del ranking WTA sin jugar el US Open 2026