Jódar, on the brink of the top 10? Here's what he needs to achieve it in Canada

The emergence of Rafa Jódar in the elite of world tennis has caused a tremor of increasingly incalculable dimensions. One thing is to perform over a short period of time, surprising the world with a series of tournaments in which you fulfill your role as a dark horse; another very different thing is to maintain the level with which you arrive at the big tournaments with hardly any prior experience in these venues, enduring the strain through three different tours, on three surfaces, with victories against the best in the world.

It seems like a lifetime since the Madrid native’s title in Marrakech... and the reality is that just over three months have passed. Almost four months during which Jódar has earned a doctorate in major tournaments, an intensive master’s program that has taken him to unimaginable places less than a year ago. The progression of the player from Leganés has been dizzying, and his recent victories make a more tangible goal appear on the horizon... called the top-10.

Can Jódar enter the top-10 at the Montreal Masters 1000?

The first tournament of the North American swing already showed us that Rafa has not come to U.S. soil to be a mere sidekick. The inexperience does not weigh on him, nor does the increasingly heavy backpack of fatigue: the rest after Wimbledon came at just the right time, approaching this swing with renewed energy and starting with a meritorious final in Washington. The points earned at that ATP 500 gave him a tremendous boost, and the volatility of the circuit beyond the top four players in the world opens the door for Jódar to sneak into a position that could intimidate someone who less than a year ago was making his start in the Challenger circuit.

Image

He left the U.S. capital debuting his spot in the top-15... and the open draw at the ATP Montreal 2026, with the main seeds out of action, allows him to dream big on Canadian soil. Those dreams go beyond titles or finals: they can also carry him swiftly into the top-10 earlier than expected, as if it were the dream of a lovely summer night.

The calculations are clear. Ambitious, yes, but clear. Rafa Jódar depends on himself to leave Canada as a top-10... unless a maxim is fulfilled: that Ben Shelton reaches the final of the tournament. The American, reigning champion of the event, is on the opposite side of the draw, so the Madrid native wouldn’t have the opportunity to stop him before reaching that round. If Rafa were to open his Masters 1000 account here and lift the title, merely having Shelton as his victim would prevent his entry into the top-10 next Monday.

There is another possibility for the Madrid native to leave Canada as a top-10: that he reaches the final, even losing, and that Shelton does not reach the semifinals of the tournament, as well as other contenders like Jiri Lehecka, Casper Ruud, Jakub Mensik, or Learner Tien not winning the title. Reaching the final is allowed, but the final triumph of any of these names would invalidate the Madrid native's hopes of leaving Montreal in an extremely privileged position.

The ascent begins here... 💫

Discover the story of 🇪🇸 Rafa Jódar and learn about the PIF ATP Next Gen Accelerator ⏫@PIF_en | #NextGenAccelerator | #Partner pic.twitter.com/JwfP7BwLOX

— ATP Tour en Español (@ATPTour_ES) August 7, 2026

The ATP Race, the great possibility for Jódar to finish the year among the ten best in the world

Beyond all these calculations, if there is one ranking that Jódar should pay attention to, it is undoubtedly the ATP Race. The yearly ranking does not lie, and the spectacular performance of the Madrid native since the clay court swing has pushed him in the rankings to a spot very close to the top-10. Champion of one title, finalist of an ATP 500, quarterfinalist in several Masters 1000 and a Grand Slam (Roland Garros)... regularity, consistency, and the ability to string together wins on the big stages have left Rafa already fighting for a spot in the top-10 of 2026.

At the moment, Jódar is ranked #11 best player of the season; in this case, Taylor Fritz acts as the firewall of the top-10, marking the boundary with his 2180 points. What happens? With the American out of action in Canada, Rafa is just one victory away from surpassing him in this table, thus entering the top-10 of the year for the first time. A win over Jiri Lehecka, securing his ticket to the quarterfinals, would place him not only in an impressive position but very close to a top-8 that would grant access to the ATP Finals.

Moreover, if we think big, if we dare to dream, the title in Canada would leave Jódar with 2999 points, a haul that would place him in no less than the 5th position of the ATP Race, only behind Flavio Cobolli, Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev, and Jannik Sinner. It is, evidently, an ambitious scenario... but very few are playing with the confidence and precision of the Madrid native, with the ranking and the math serving as new incentives to continue making history. Do you believe in him? Can he break through the barrier in a new display of strength? We have several days left to find out.

This is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Jódar, ¿directo al top-10? Esto es lo que necesita para lograrlo en Canadá