Causes and consequences of Alcaraz's withdrawal in Cincinnati: Is the US Open at risk?
We analyzed the implications that the absence of Spanish may have in Cincinnati despite having returned to training with high intensity.
We will have to wait to see Carlos Alcaraz competing again. When the entire tennis world was salivating at the possibility of an immediate return, the player from Murcia has decided to withdraw from the ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati 2026, now opening two lines of thought for the upcoming US Open 2026.
Maximum caution, prudence, zero risks. This is the mantra that has guided all of Carlos Alcaraz's actions and those of his team since he injured his right wrist at the Conde de Godó. There are few injuries more problematic for a tennis player than those of that joint, with time and moderation being non-negotiable factors to avoid relapses.
Why has Alcaraz decided not to compete in the Cincinnati Masters 1000?
For a few days now, watching Alcaraz train on outdoor hard courts at a good pace has filled everyone with optimism, but the timelines were very tight. Making a comeback in a high-level, demanding tournament with only two weeks of training posed risks. What those close to the Spaniard say is clear: recovery is going well, but there is still a lot of work to be done regarding physical conditioning and wrist strengthening.
There have been no relapses, at least for now. Everyone is aware that taking a step back by rushing the return could be fatal. History has shown that a wrist injury can significantly affect the careers of great players, like Del Potro or Thiem. It will be crucial to see if Carlos continues training at a good pace during these weeks, which would confirm that his absence in Cincinnati is based solely on caution.
A competitor like Alcaraz is not going to settle for returning to the court unless he can aim for important things; in fact, it would be dangerous to compete with the handbrake on and without the necessary confidence.
If there is a season to deal with a prolonged absence, this is it. Alcaraz achieved his top priority in January, which was to complete the Career Grand Slam, so there is no sense in rushing until he is fully recovered. More training and fire tests are needed to return to the courts.
What decision will Carlos Alcaraz make regarding the US Open 2026?
This is the big question on every fan's mind. It is evident that participating in the Cincinnati tournament was essential to gain competitive rhythm and fully assess his aspirations for Flushing Meadows. His absence from the Ohio event raises rumors that it could also mean missing out on New York, but what comes from the Murcia player’s environment is that he will continue to try to make it to the last Grand Slam of the year.
However, there is also the option that if the upcoming training sessions go well, with another two weeks to get ready and check that his wrist responds appropriately to more significant and continuous efforts, the Spaniard may decide to participate in the US Open.
It doesn't seem like the most measured scenario to return after more than four months without competing in a Grand Slam, but it is also true that Carlos would have the option to play mixed doubles, treating it as a final test already in New York, and afterwards he would have two assured matches against lower-tier opponents, where he wouldn’t need his best version to come out victorious.
What is evident is that the chances of him becoming champion in New York are reduced with this absence in Cincinnati, but faith should not be lost. The most catastrophic scenario would be if, in a few days, Alcaraz announced his absence from the New York Grand Slam, something that should be explained as it could be due to a relapse or simply to a lack of time to recondition and the feeling that it is not worth taking any risks.
How does his ATP ranking look and what are his chances of competing in the ATP Finals 2026?
The Spaniard will lose the 1,000 points corresponding to his title in Cincinnati last year, assuming that if he competes in the US Open 2026, he will do so as the third seed, which could lead to a potential match against Sinner in the semifinals. His top-3 status in the ATP ranking will not be compromised, at least in the short term, due to the significant distance he maintains with Auger-Aliassime, Djokovic, and the rest of the contenders.
A different scenario would arise if he misses the US Open, as he would see a further 2,000 points vanish from his tally, leaving him with just 5,160 points while watching others accumulate.
Many may wonder if, with such a prolonged absence from Carlos Alcaraz due to his wrist injury, his participation in the ATP Finals 2026 could be in jeopardy. The truth is no, due to the ATP rule that allows a Grand Slam champion to qualify by finishing among the top 20 of the year, something that is taken for granted with the Spaniard.
It is now essential to closely monitor Carlos Alcaraz's progress in his upcoming training sessions and fully respect any decisions he and his team make. The priority is to avoid a relapse, and if it requires sacrificing the entire season, that will be done.
This is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Causas y consecuencias de la baja de Alcaraz en Cincinnati: ¿Corre peligro el US Open?