The miracle Rybakina needs to take the number 1 from Sabalenka in Toronto

Elena Rybakina arrives at the WTA 1000 Toronto 2026 with mathematical options to take the number 1 spot in the world from Aryna Sabalenka, although the reality is that the Kazakh player barely depends on herself. The battle for the top spot in the WTA ranking will remain very much alive during the North American swing, but all indications suggest that it will be Cincinnati and, above all, the US Open where it can be decided definitively.

Sabalenka arrives in Canada with 8,550 points, a lead of 494 over Rybakina. In addition, the Belarusian has already accumulated 94 consecutive weeks as the world number 1, reaching a total of 102 weeks at the top of the ranking.

Sabalenka has it in her hands; Rybakina thinks in the medium term

The calculations clearly favor the ranking leader. For Sabalenka, reaching the round of 16 is enough to ensure she continues as the world number 1 at the end of the tournament, regardless of what Rybakina does.

The Kazakh, on the other hand, needs several factors to align. First, she must accept the loss of 390 points corresponding to the semifinals she reached last year in Montreal. Then, she is obliged to win the title in Toronto. But even that would not be enough.

To leave Canada as number 1, Rybakina also needs Sabalenka not to reach the round of 16. Any additional win by the Belarusian would automatically end the Wimbledon champion's aspirations.

Therefore, the Canadian tournament should be understood more as an opportunity to maintain a manageable distance from Sabalenka than as a real chance to already reach the top of the ranking.

The North American swing has only just begun, and there are still Cincinnati and the US Open to be contested, two tournaments with a huge number of points at stake. If Rybakina maintains the great level shown over the past few months, the assault on number 1 seems more a matter of when rather than if it can happen. Toronto, however, demands a combination of results that is too favorable to trust that the leadership change will come this very week.

This is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, El milagro que necesita Rybakina para quitar el número 1 a Sabalenka en Toronto