Sabalenka and the looming threat of Rybakina in the battle for number 1

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Aryna Sabalenka has spent 86 consecutive weeks as number 1 in the WTA ranking, but this streak could soon come to an end. Elena Rybakina is close by and has fewer points to defend than the Belarusian in a grass-court tour that could mark a turning point in their battle for the top spot in the women's world tennis.

It's been a long time since Aryna Sabalenka has felt the pressure of a rival with enough strength to consider knocking her off her throne in the WTA ranking. The consistency and regularity of the Belarusian over a year have been affected by her poor performance on clay courts, compounded by Elena Rybakina's title at the Australian Open and her overall strong performance this year, showing more efficiency on clay than in previous years, setting the stage for a potential takeover.

Rybakina is less than 1,000 points from Sabalenka and seems stronger on grass

Although the 947 points that separate them in the rankings may still seem like a significant gap, the fact is that the Kazakh comes into this tour with few points to defend. Despite her surprising defeat at Roland Garros against Starodubtseva and her loss on the grass at Queen's against Boulter, which may have slightly dented her confidence, Elena Rybakina faces very promising weeks ahead and her drive to reach number 1 could boost her game on a surface where she once reigned absolute queen a few years ago.

On the other hand, Aryna Sabalenka has not quite found her comfort outside of hard courts, and her step back on the clay tour may influence her grass-court campaign, where she also has unfinished business. Wimbledon remains the only Grand Slam where she hasn't reached the final, hitting a wall in the semifinals three times, in the 2021, 2023, and 2025 editions. She doesn't seem to be in the best shape to change this, but she will participate in the WTA 500 Berlin 2026 to gain competitive rhythm and confidence, just like her rival will.

How many points do Sabalenka and Rybakina defend in the grass tour? Will there be a change at the top of the WTA ranking?

• Aryna Sabalenka: Semifinals in Berlin (195 points) + Semifinals in Wimbledon (780 points) = 975 points
• Elena Rybakina: Quarterfinals in Berlin (108 points) + Third Round in Wimbledon (130 points) = 238 points

It's evident the considerable margin that Elena Rybakina has to collect points in the upcoming weeks, especially considering she is also registered for the Bad Homburg tournament, the week before Wimbledon. There is a clear determination from the Kazakh to make the most of this tour and aim to become the new world number 1. Aryna Sabalenka will need to bring her best game to remain at the top of the WTA ranking, with the Berlin tournament next week turning into a litmus test for both.

This news is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Sabalenka y la acechante amenaza de Rybakina en la lucha por el número 1