This is how the fight for the world number 1 between Sinner and Alcaraz will be in Monte Carlo
We analyze round by round all possible scenarios in the pulse between Sinner and Alcaraz to come out of the ATP Masters 1000 Monte Carlo 2026 in the number 1 spot of the ATP ranking.
Being world number 1 is a privilege that nobody wants to stop enjoying. Carlos Alcaraz watches as the threat of Jannik Sinner looms over him, who has gained ground in the first two Masters 1000 of the season and arrives at the Monte Carlo tournament with real chances of aiming for the top of the ATP rankings. We'll tell you what each one needs to leave the Principality in that position.
As if the start of the European clay court swing wasn't already filled with enough incentives, from the very first significant event a direct and fierce battle for the ATP number 1 spot emerges. The good performances of Jannik Sinner and the shortcomings of Carlos Alcaraz in Indian Wells and Miami have led to the current gap being 1,190 points. It's not a negligible amount, but it's important to note that the Spanish player defends the 1,000 points from his title in Monte Carlo last year, while the one from San Candido can only add points, setting the stage for a tough battle.
Possible Scenarios in Monte Carlo in the battle for the world number 1 spot
| R1 | R2 | R3 | QF | SF | F | W | |
| Jannik Sinner | 12,410 | 12,450 | 12,500 | 12,600 | 12,800 | 13,050 | 13,500 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 12,600 | 12,640 | 12,690 | 12,790 | 12,990 | 13,240 | 13,590 |
This table shows that Jannik Sinner needs a strong tournament to have a chance to leave Monte Carlo as the world number 1, and even if he manages that, it would depend on Carlos Alcaraz's performances. The margin of error for the player from Murcia is small; if he falls early in the rounds, his position in the top of the ATP rankings could be severely compromised. It is true that the current context means both players depend on themselves; the tournament winner will also leave Monaco as number 1. But there are many other calculations.
Jannik Sinner will be the world number 1 after the Monte Carlo tournament if...
He exits in the quarterfinals and Carlos loses in his debut
He reaches the semifinals and Alcaraz does not
He is a finalist and doesn't face Carlos in the title showdown
He wins the tournament
Carlos Alcaraz will be the world number 1 after the Monte Carlo tournament if...He either matches or surpasses Sinner's result
He wins the tournament
He is a finalist and doesn't face Sinner in the title match
He matches or surpasses Jannik's result
This is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Así será la lucha por el número 1 del mundo entre Sinner y Alcaraz en Montecarlo