Analysis of the women's draw of the Australian Open 2026: Difficulties for Sabalenka and Swiatek

Diego Jiménez Rubio | 15 Jan 2026 | 06.09

Aryna Sabalenka, analysis of the women's draw at the Australian Open 2026. Photo: gettyimages

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An unavoidable appointment with potentially significant historical implications for women's tennis. This is how the Australian Open 2026 unfolds, with the strong favorite being Aryna Sabalenka, although many dream of seeing a final between her and Iga Swiatek, with the Polish player aiming to complete her particular Career Grand Slam. It is worth analyzing the draw and the obstacles that each candidate will face round by round.

These are good times for women's tennis, with a very high overall level, two dominant figures with significant media impact and intimate rivalry, as well as a plethora of charismatic players with more than enough skills to succeed. All of them will be put to the test at the Australian Open 2026, where Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek could only meet in a final. To achieve this, they will have to overcome very challenging obstacles, as revealed by the draw.

- Analysis of the women's draw in the Australian Open 2026 round by round

1st Quadrant

Potential opponents for Aryna Sabalenka: Rakotomanga - Pavlyuchenkova/Qualifier - Raducanu/Potapova - Tauson/Mboko - Paolini/Kostyuk/Jovic - Gauff/Andreeva - Swiatek/Anisimova

Potential opponents for Jasmine Paolini: Qualifier - Frech/Erjaveo - Jovic/Hon - Alexandrova/Kostyuk - Sabalenka/Tauson/Mboko - Gauff/Andreeva - Swiatek/Anisimova

A challenging path awaits the Belarusian as early as the second round, facing a former Grand Slam finalist like Pavlyuchenkova, but the real challenges would unfold in the third and fourth rounds, with illustrious names such as Raducanu, Tauson, or Mboko. If she manages to surpass them, she would face a tough quarter-final clash that Paolini will not find easy to contend with, as Kostyuk or Jovic are very dangerous opponents who could thwart her progress.

2nd Quadrant

Potential opponents for Cori Gauff: Rahkimova - Danilovic/Venus - Vondrousova/Bouzas - Navarro/Muchova/Eala - Andreeva/Svitolina - Sabalenka/Paolini - Swiatek/Anisimova

Potential opponents for Mirra Andreeva: Vekic - Sakkari/JeanJean - Yastremska/Tomljanovic - Svitolina/Shnaider - Gauff/Navarro/Muchova - Sabalenka/Paolini - Swiatek/Anisimova

Gauff faces maximum demands emotionally and in terms of tennis skills. As long as doubts persist about her serve, every match could be dangerous, especially against players of the caliber of Danilovic or Venus, who will engage in a beautiful duel in the first round. Particularly challenging would be the third round, where Vondrousova or Bouzas would be true litmus tests. If she overcomes these hurdles, Muchova poses a formidable challenge in the round of 16. On the other hand, Andreeva will need utmost focus to defeat Sakkari in the second round and Svitolina or Shnaider in the round of 16.

3rd Quadrant

Potential opponents for Jessica Pegula: Zakharova - Kessler/Arango - Badosa/Seidel - Keys/Leylah - Anisimova/Noskova - Swiatek/Rybakina - Sabalenka/Gauff

Potential opponents for Amanda Anisimova: Waltert - Siniakova/Udvardy - Kenin/Stearns/Marcinko - Noskova/Ostapenko - Pegula/Keys - Swiatek/Rybakina - Sabalenka/Gauff

The challenges for both Americans would intensify in the third round, where Badosa could pose a firm opposition to Pegula if she is free from severe back issues, and Anisimova will face a formidable opponent in her section. The fourth round could be even more complicated for Jessica as she might have to face the reigning champion of the tournament, while Amanda sees the ever-threatening and unpredictable Ostapenko on the horizon.

4th Quadrant

Potential opponents for Elena Rybakina: Juvan - Gracheva/Golubic - Joint/Sun - Bencic/Mertens/Kasatkina - Swiatek/Osaka - Anisimova/Pegula - Sabalenka/Gauff

Potential opponents for Iga Swiatek: Qualifier - Bouzkova/Zarazua - Kalinskaya/Cocciaretto - Osaka/Samsonova - Rybakina/Bencic - Anisimova/Pegula - Sabalenka/Gauff

A quarter-final clash between Rybakina and Swiatek would be epic, but both will have to work very hard to reach that stage. The major obstacle for the Polish player could be Ostapenko, a potential opponent in the round of 16, while the Belarusian faces a very challenging scenario in that same round, with a confident Bencic who could pose a serious threat to anyone.