Alcaraz may be forging an empire at ATP's number 1 ranking

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Seated atop the ATP ranking with serious chances of maintaining that privileged position for a long time, Carlos Alcaraz has seen his prospects of finishing the year and spending a significant part of 2026 as the world number 1 increase following Jannik Sinner's withdrawal in Shanghai. We analyze how long the Spaniard can stay there.

While it's true that at this stage of the season, the focus is on the battle to see who ends the year as the world number 1, the truth is that this goal is quite achievable for Carlos Alcaraz, and speculations can already be made about his time at the top of the ATP ranking. He cannot relax either because Jannik Sinner will keep trying, but it's not far-fetched to think that the Spaniard could have months ahead as the top-ranked player.

- Alcaraz's Advantage over Sinner in the ATP Ranking and Their Points to Defend

There is already a significant gap between the Spaniard and the Italian, with a total of 1,340 points advantage for Alcaraz. The Spaniard only needs to defend 300 points out of the 2,500 up for grabs for the remainder of the year, including the Paris Masters 1000 and the ATP Finals. Conversely, Sinner will only be able to tally points at Paris and Vienna as he defends his title in Turin.

Despite this clearly favorable scenario for Carlos, Jannik could regain the world number 1 position in a few weeks; for this, he needs to win in Vienna and Paris while Alcaraz does not reach the semifinals of the 2025 ATP Masters 1000 Paris. In that case, Sinner from San Candido would reclaim the crown, although it could be temporary as in the ATP Finals, the player from Murcia would have plenty of room to return to the top, even if Sinner defended his title from last year.

- Alcaraz Could Still Lose the Number 1 Ranking in 2025

It's expected that Carlitos will close the season as the number 1 player, stringing together consecutive weeks and reaching a total of 50 weeks on December 1 in that position. From there, a very favorable scenario unfolds for Alcaraz with no surprises in the rankings, as Sinner defends the 2,000 points won at the Australian Open, while Alcaraz only has to defend the 400 points from reaching the quarterfinals last year.

Depending on the lead that Carlos Alcaraz has been able to establish in the ATP ranking by that time, calculations will be necessary to assess the likelihood of him entering the clay court swing at the top. He will defend the title in Rotterdam, the semifinals in Indian Wells, and the second round in Miami, giving him room to accumulate points, but Jannik Sinner will significantly add to his tally as he does not defend any points this year due to a suspension period without competition. In conclusion, much to be decided, but an exciting prospect for the Spaniard.

This news is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Alcaraz puede estar forjando un imperio en el número 1 del ranking ATP