Analysis of the ATP Shanghai 2025 draw: Djokovic and Fritz fall on Sinner's side

Fernando Murciego | 29 Sep 2025 | 06.55

Jannik Sinner, with his trophy in Shanghai in 2024. Source: Getty

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Although we had to wait a few minutes longer than expected, the Masters 1000 of Shanghai 2025 has finally come out of the oven, where the best male players on the circuit will once again meet in the same venue. Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner will not fail to show up, currently active in other settings: the Spaniard in the semifinals of Tokyo, and the Italian in the quarterfinals of Beijing. As usual, they can only meet in the grand final. However, to get there, they will have to navigate past several threats that will emerge along the way.

For example, Novak Djokovic, who still feels the competition bug, hence his decision a few days ago to sign up for an event he has conquered four times. It's safe to say he's quite good at it. Djokovic has landed in the bottom half of the draw, potentially facing Sinner in the semifinals. Other profiles to keep an eye on include Taylor Fritz and Ben Shelton, also located in that section of the draw. Let's analyze quadrant by quadrant to have a clearer picture of this ATP Shanghai 2025.

Analysis of the ATP Shanghai 2025 Draw

1st quadrant

Potential opponents for Carlos Alcaraz: Bye - Tien/Kecmanovic - Norrie - Medvedev/Davidovich - De Minaur/Khachanov - Zverev/Musetti - Sinner/Djokovic/Fritz

Let's start with the world No. 1, Carlos Alcaraz, a player who has participated in the event twice but has never achieved outstanding results. In 2023, he was eliminated in the Round of 16 by Dimitrov, while last year, he reached the quarterfinals, where Machac halted his run. Will the third time be the charm? The draw seems to be in his favor this time, although facing a focused Medvedev or an inspired Davidovich in the fourth round could be challenging. If he overcomes that obstacle, the path to the final may start to clear up.

The question is how Alejandro Davidovich and even Daniil Medvedev will perform, given that they recently clashed at the China Open with a clear victory for the Russian. They could meet again here, with the reward being a match against Alcaraz in the Round of 16. Alex De Minaur is another one to watch closely in this quadrant, starting as the seventh seed with a confident route to the important rounds. There's also the puzzle of Stefanos Tsitsipas and the always respectable Karen Khachanov, along with our Pedro Martinez, who will kick off against Arthur Cazaux.

First quadrant of the ATP Shanghai 2025.

2nd quadrant

Potential opponents for Alexander Zverev: Bye - Navone - Michelsen - Lehecka/Shapovalov - Musetti/Aliassime/Mensik - Alcaraz/De Minaur - Sinner/Djokovic/Fritz

I would love to say that Alexander Zverev has landed a favorable draw to dream in Shanghai and at least meet his ranking expectations by reaching the semifinals as the third seed. Yet, it's not that straightforward. Watch out for a possible showdown with Alex Michelsen in the third round, a player who has been in great form during the recent Laver Cup. Also, be cautious of contenders like Jakub Mensik or Felix-Auger Aliassime just in the round prior, both posing clear threats to a Zverev who hasn't been in his best form for a while.

There are many uncertainties surrounding Zverev, a finalist here in 2019. Lorenzo Musetti, situated as the eighth seed at the top of this quadrant, might be waiting for his chance if others stumble. Leading his section won't be easy, but if he manages to overcome Mensik or Aliassime, we might witness a major breakthrough. We could already envision a showdown between the Italian and the German for a spot in the semifinals, yet it's wise to take it one match at a time.

Second quadrant of the ATP Shanghai 2025.

3rd quadrant

Potential opponents for Novak Djokovic: Bye - Moutet/Cilic - Tiafoe/Sonego - Rublev/Cobolli - Shelton/Ruud/Cerundolo - Sinner/Fritz - Alcaraz/Zverev/De Minaur

To our delight, Novak Djokovic returns to competition in an event where he has been victorious in 2012, 2013, 2015, and 2018. Let's not forget the final he lost last year against Jannik Sinner, a topic we will discuss later. Djokovic wants to test himself to maintain his competitive rhythm and could face Marin Cilic or Corentin Moutet initially. If he then encounters Frances Tiafoe, Andrey Rublev, or Ben Shelton– in a worst-case scenario – he still has to face the top players in the last two rounds. The Balkan star is once again aiming for a remarkable performance.

As seen, Belgrade's native had a tough draw, facing a demanding path to triumph. Particularly noteworthy is sixth-seed Ben Shelton, who arrives in Shanghai after several idle weeks, which could make him a slightly weaker opponent. Keep an eye on players like Reilly Opelka, Gabriel Diallo, or Matteo Berrettini, powerful servers who could perform well here. Our Jaume Munar will debut against Marton Fucsovics in the first round.

4th quadrant

Potential opponents for Jannik Sinner: Bye - Altmaier - Griekspoor/Brooksby - Bublik/Machac - Fritz/Rune - Djokovic/Shelton - Alcaraz/Zverev/De Minaur

Concluding the analysis of the ATP Shanghai 2025 draw, we have the defending champion, Jannik Sinner. Still awaiting his performance in Beijing earlier this week, the Italian is already aware of the luck – or lack thereof – he had in the draw. Everything he needed to avoid, landed on his side: Taylor Fritz in the quarterfinals, Shelton or Djokovic in the semifinals, besides Carlos Alcaraz in the final, following the ranking rules, which don't always apply. It’s a tough challenge but not impossible for a player who proved twelve months ago that this court suits him perfectly.

Let's not overlook Taylor Fritz. A rejuvenated contender since the Laver Cup, where he led his team to victory by defeating Alcaraz and Zverev. Fritz is also alive this week in the Tokyo semifinals. He will undoubtedly be one of the major attractions in Shanghai for this fourth quadrant. Anything else noteworthy? The presence of Stan Wawrinka, always a pleasure to watch; the enigma of Alexander Bublik, whom one wouldn't want to face at all; and the fascinating – though less publicized – Tomas Machac, who halted Alcaraz's rise abruptly last season. There are significant hurdles scattered around this section. It's regrettable not to highlight Holger Rune, as there are low expectations for the Dane.