Analysis of the WTA Montreal 2025 draw: Gauff avoids Swiatek and Pegula until the final

Fernando Murciego | 26 Jul 2025 | 18.07

Jessica Pegula and a tough draw at the WTA Canada 2025. Source: Getty

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We already have the draw ready for the National Bank Open 2025, held in Montreal from July 27 to August 7. It will be the seventh WTA 100 event on the calendar, a category that this season is surprising us with revelations and unexpected outcomes at some of its stops. With the arrival of summer, the spotlight will fully shift to the North American hard courts, where Jessica Pegula has a lot to say, despite her disappointing start to the tour in Washington. Here, she has to defend the titles she has won in the past two seasons, but the competition will be fierce.

Initially, Pegula starts as the third seed in the draw, as Coco Gauff takes the top spot as a significant favorite, and Iga Swiatek leads the bottom half. Other strong contenders will come into play such as Mirra Andreeva, Madison Keys, or Amanda Anisimova, players who always perform well when competing near American soil. The top 10 will not be fully present, as Aryna Sabalenka, the queen of the women's circuit, decided some time ago to skip this event. Both Qinwen Zheng and Paula Badosa, who are injured, will also be absent from the competition. With that said, let's take a quick look at what we can expect in Canada over the coming days.

FIRST QUADRANT

Coco Gauff is the one to beat in this Montréal tournament, especially considering the relatively smooth path she has in the early rounds. Apart from a potentially tough match in the opening against Danielle Collins, there are interesting matchups ahead with Diana Shnaider or Jasmine Paolini before reaching the hypothetical semifinals.

Watch out for the potential of Victoria Mboko (18 years old), playing at home and showing impressive form in recent months. Also, keep an eye on Marie Bouzkova, the Prague champion last Saturday, currently in good shape for this tournament. Although Beatriz Haddad Maia was a finalist in the event in 2022, it may be a result too distant in the past to consider her a threat. Lastly, Jessica Bouzas will start her campaign in the first round against a player from the qualifying rounds, making her the only representative for us until we see how Cristina Bucsa performs in the Qualy.

SECOND QUADRANT

Moving on to the second section, where Mirra Andreeva and Emma Navarro are set to meet in the quarterfinals, although in today's tennis, you can never simply rely on rankings or make premature calculations. Who could pose a challenge to them? Especially the locals, like an inspired Bianca Andreescu, recalling her 2019 triumph here, or Leylah Fernandez, who despite fatigue from her Washington performance—she's in the semifinals tonight—might continue her good form. Beyond these two, it's hard to find other threats.

Perhaps Elena Rybakina could be a dark horse in this draw, but we've been saying this for several months now, and the Kazakh player has yet to make the leap to return to the world's top 10. She didn't succeed on clay, nor on grass, so will it be the fast courts that bring back her best version? Also a semifinalist in Washington, tomorrow we might see her candidacy in a different light.

THIRD QUADRANT

Here, the list of contenders expands, almost endlessly, thanks to the plethora of talented players. Jessica Pegula, the champion of the last two editions, will start against Maria Sakkari or Carson Branstine, both capable of troubling her and exacerbating the crisis she's facing after early exits in Wimbledon and Washington. Pegula from Buffalo is certainly not in the best shape to defend her title. Furthermore, this quadrant features other strong players like Ajla Tomljanovic, Jelena Ostapenko, or Naomi Osaka, indicating that any match could be the last one.

There's more uncertainty surrounding Amanda Anisimova, who narrowly missed success here in last year's final but hasn't been on the court since her disastrous performance in the Wimbledon final against Iga Swiatek, where she failed to win a single game. There is the risk of facing Emma Raducanu too early, shining since her collaboration with Mark Petchey. However, also be cautious of Elena Svitolina (2018 champion) or Liudmila Samsonova (runner-up in 2023).

FOURTH QUADRANT

Concluding the draw overview, we find the potentially straightforward path for Iga Swiatek to the final, even though her name hasn't been prominent in Canadian tennis yet. The Wimbledon champion, now breaking the curse of not winning titles for 14 months, enters as the second seed and will face Yulia Putintseva or a player from the qualifying rounds in her opener. Without significant threats early on, she may encounter Madison Keys –a tough opponent on these courts– and Belinda Bencic, another player who made her mark here as a teenager back in 2015. Smooth sailing for the Polish player who now needs to demonstrate her superiority on the court.

Lastly, we shouldn't forget Eugenie Bouchard, who deserves this paragraph dedicated to her. At 31 years old, the Canadian tennis player will conclude her career where it all began, competing in her home country in front of her crowd. The draw has aligned her to face Emiliana Arango, a 24-year-old Colombian already among the top 100 players globally, in her opening match—and perhaps her last as well. The winner will meet Belinda Bencic in the following round, ensuring a standout showdown for that day. That wraps it up for now; it's now your turn to predict which players will reach the grand final, who will emerge as the champion, who will be the revelation, and which favorites might exit early.