The keys to the Alcaraz-Sinner final

We have a dream final. Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner meet again a month after having us glued to the TV for almost six hours in a truly crazy final in Paris. Some expect something similar to what happened at Roland Garros, although let me tell you that's quite improbable. This Wimbledon final goes through various key points, both for one and the other, in what, hopefully, will be a new spectacle between the two best in the world.

For Jannik Sinner

Regarding this final for the Italian on paper, Sinner could benefit from the speed of the court. Unlike the previous losses against Alcaraz, this court will be the fastest of their recent encounters, something that Sinner will celebrate.

For example, Indian Wells is ranked as the 57th fastest court on the circuit (there are 68 in total). In other words, extremely slow. There, Alcaraz defeated him twice. Beijing, a major final, is ranked 47th in that ranking, while Rome (63) and Roland Garros (60) almost hit the bottom spots. Wimbledon, on the other hand, is the 25th court. Not very fast, but much more so than the others. This clearly favors Jannik.

In other words, the one from San Candido will be able to exploit his first serve much more. Having a better service than Carlos, he can cause more damage that way. Simply put, if the world number 1 serves at the same level as throughout the tournament, the match could be more in his favor. It remains to be seen what return Carlos is capable of making. Being an excellent returner, the final could be decided there. Alcaraz will have to raise his level on the returns if he doesn't want the balance to tilt toward his top rival.

It will also be crucial that Sinner is able to block Alcaraz's serves. Even though the Spanish player's serve is not as good as his, it can be quite effective at Wimbledon due to its effects and his great ability to place the ball. In 2024, he crushed Djokovic with his serves. If Jannik can return many shots efficiently, the final could lean in his favor.

As you can see, the key will be primarily in the serve-return battle. Depending on how each of them elevates their level and excels in that aspect, the final could be decided for one of them.

For Carlos Alcaraz

For Carlos, beyond the mentioned serve-return battle, something that causes significant trouble for Sinner is changes in shot height. If Jannik can dominate almost the entire circuit with ease, with only Alcaraz being able to stop him, it's because the Spanish player can counter his baseline bombardment by varying the speed and height of his shots.

On clay, Carlos can play a high ball to restart the points, push Jannik back from the baseline, and force him into uncomfortable positions. On grass, this strategy won't work as well since the ball won't bounce as high. So, how do you change shot height on grass? The answer is clear: lower the ball.

Dimitrov, in the fourth round, executed this perfectly. If you remember, the Bulgarian sliced the ball consistently on Sinner's backhand side. This strategy reduced the shot's speed and forced Sinner to hit from below and in an uncomfortable position. This is what Alcaraz needs to do. Use slices, drop shots, and spins to prevent Jannik from playing his powerful game comfortably.

Last year, Alcaraz dismantled Djokovic in the final by using slices effectively. He knows how to execute it perfectly, and it's likely that in this final against Sinner, he will do it again. It remains to be seen how the Italian will respond to this tactic from Carlos.

It will also be crucial for Alcaraz to showcase his forehand. Throughout the tournament, he has been trying to regain his forehand, almost without success. It wasn't until the round of 16/quarters that his forehand started working somewhat better, still far from his excellent form, for instance, at Queen’s. He needs his forehand to help him counter Sinner's powerful shots. Notably, it wasn't until the third set of the Roland Garros final when Alcaraz started hitting his forehand, while in the first two sets he could barely do so, which caused him to struggle.

Final Analysis Alcaraz-Sinner at Wimbledon

In any case, this will be an incredibly interesting final. Initially, it slightly favors Sinner due to the speed factor. We will see how Alcaraz faces this point, with a new opponent in the Wimbledon final, after facing Djokovic in the past two years. The Spaniard knows that out of the only two losses he has suffered on grass in his career, one was against Jannik at Wimbledon. He knows what to expect. Don't miss it.
 

This is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Las claves de la final Alcaraz-Sinner