Analysis of the ATP Doha 2025 draw. Tough debut for Djokovic, on the same side as Alcaraz

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With the big names on the list, excitement is guaranteed. Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic stand out especially in that list of players participating this week in the ATP Doha 2025, an event marked by the recent withdrawal of Jannik Sinner, who accepts a three-month suspension for a doping case. In comparison to last year, Karen Khachanov will have a tough time defending the trophy, a title he won against young Jakub Mensik. It will be a good test to see how this new season unfolds, with the three favorites arriving in completely different forms.

Analysis of the main draw of ATP Doha 2025

1st quadrant

Potential opponents of Carlos Alcaraz: Marin Cilic - Zhizhen Zhang - Jiri Lehecka/Grigor Dimitrov - Novak Djokovic - Alex De Miñaur/Stefanos Tsitsipas/Daniil Medvedev

Carlos also faces a tough start, although he should fulfill his role as the clear favorite against Marin Cilic, who is going through a challenging period in his career due to several months of injuries. They met three times in 2022 and Carlos won all three, although in some matches, he felt the threat of the experienced Croatian player. Zhizhen Zhang will be a challenge he hasn’t explored yet, but the real tests would come in the third round and semifinals.

Contrary to what we are used to, the semifinal would be the stage where Alcaraz would face Novak. We have fresh memories of their clash at the Australian Open, although now the Spaniard may arrive with more rhythm and confidence after his recent victory in the Netherlands. Looking towards the final, on the other side of the draw, they could face Medvedev or De Miñaur, although this could be a great tournament for Tsitsipas. Either way, Carlos would enter that title clash as the clear favorite.

2nd quadrant

Potential opponents of Novak Djokovic: Matteo Berrettini - Jan-Lennard Struff/Tallon Griekspoor - Jack Draper/Alexei Popyrin - Carlos Alcaraz - Alex De Miñaur/Stefanos Tsitsipas/Daniil Medvedev

Undoubtedly, he is the toughest rival among the top seeds in this Doha tournament. Novak returns from a leg injury that forced him to retire against Alexander Zverev in Australia. It has been a couple of weeks, and Djokovic seems ready, participating in doubles alongside Verdasco to regain rhythm. In theory, the Serbian should be superior to Matteo Berrettini in their debut match, although the lack of competitive matches and perhaps concerns about the injury could favor the Italian, who is not coming in with much confidence. Nole leads their head-to-head by 4-0 in their four encounters, but this could be the chance for Berrettini to surprise.

Moving past that initial hurdle, Djokovic would face challenges in the quarterfinals and semifinals. Players like Struff, Griekspoor, Draper, or Popyrin could pose problems, but the Serbian should advance until a potential semi-final encounter with Alcaraz. It would be a true test for Djokovic to show that he is back at 100% and that his physical issues are fully resolved. If he reaches the final, he would do so as the favorite. 

3rd quadrant

Potential opponents of Daniil Medvedev: Karen Khachanov - Roberto Bautista/Zizou Bergs - Stefanos Tsitsipas/Felix Auger-Aliassime - Alex de Miñaur/Andrey Rublev - Carlos Alcaraz/Novak Djokovic

Daniil is regaining form in Marseille, with a series of matches helping him regain self-confidence. His first opponent in Doha will be Karen Khachanov, the defending champion of the tournament. In the second round, he could face Bautista, who performs well on Qatari courts, so the Russian will have no easy rounds. It all depends on any surprises that may arise, but the difficulty of his quadrant is persistent.

4th quadrant

Potential opponents of Alex De Miñaur: Roman Safiullin - Abedallah Shelbayh - Andrey Rublev - Stefanos Tsitsipas/Daniil Medvedev - Carlos Alcaraz/Novak Djokovic

The Australian rises to be the second seed due to Jannik Sinner's suspension. This works in his favor, avoiding Carlos Alcaraz until a possible final. His debut will be against Roman Safiullin, a talented player but with consistency issues, a round Alex should win without significant problems. In the next round, he would meet Shelbayh, a young player with nothing to lose. Based on the lineup, De Miñaur is favored to advance far, but everything is wide open in this Qatar tournament. He would lose his favorite status in a tight clash with Andrey Rublev in the quarterfinals, where the path would start getting tougher.

This news is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Análisis del cuadro del ATP Doha 2025. Duro debut para Djokovic, del mismo lado que Alcaraz