ATP Shanghai 2024: Analysis of the Draw - Alcaraz Falls on Sinner's Side, Djokovic on the Other Zone

Raquel Bermúdez Rodríguez | 30 Sep 2024 | 06.00

Analysis of the ATP Masters Shanghai 2024 draw. Photo: Getty

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Three years had passed on the circuit without the tournament taking place due to the global pandemic, but now it is essential for most players. The ATP Shanghai 2024 is once again a key event for the world's best, although in this edition it will not feature Hubert Hurkacz, the reigning champion from last season, due to injury. However, there will be, barring any unforeseen circumstances, Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev, Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, Novak Djokovic, Holger Rune, and Stefanos Tsitsipas, among others.

It will be the Serbian player's first tournament of the Asian swing, as he has not competed since representing Serbia in the Davis Cup, just one week after the US Open 2024. For many others, this will be their second event on the continent, having previously participated in the ATP Beijing 2024 or the ATP Tokyo 2024. Even without knowing the final results of these tournaments, the players will already know their draw in the Chinese Masters 1000.

Analysis of the main draw of ATP Shanghai 2024

First quadrant

Potential rivals of Jannik Sinner: Bye - Taro Daniel - Tomás Martín Etcheverry/Pablo Carreño - Ben Shelton/Arthur Fils - Daniil Medvedev - Carlos Alcaraz/Casper Ruud - Alexander Zverev/Novak Djokovic

Potential rivals of Daniil Medvedev: Bye - Thiago Seyboth Wild/Qualy - Matteo Arnaldi/Adrian Mannarino - Felix Auger-Aliassime/Stefanos Tsitsipas - Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz/Casper Ruud - Alexander Zverev/Novak Djokovic

It is difficult to determine which is the tougher section of the draw, the upper or the lower, although it is true that Sinner, Medvedev, and Alcaraz stand out in the first, while Novak Djokovic stands out more individually in the second, depending on the form in which the Serbian and his top rivals arrive. Jannik has a relatively clear path until the third round, but he will need to be cautious against the speed of Taro Daniel's tennis on these surfaces or against a Pablo Carreño who has been showing improvements. The first significant test in Shanghai for Sinner would come in that fourth round against Ben Shelton, although Arthur Fils could present an obstacle along the way.

The challenge does not get any easier in the quarterfinals, where he would face Daniil Medvedev, who should have previously defeated Felix Auger-Aliassime or Stefanos Tsitsipas, both dangerous opponents that the Russian must surpass. Last year, Daniil fell in his second match as he did not feel comfortable with the speed of the courts, but he is always one of the main contenders to watch. The clash between Medvedev and Sinner could be decisive in the final stretch, where potential opponents like Carlos Alcaraz in the semifinals and Novak Djokovic in the final should await.

Second quadrant

Potential rivals of Carlos Alcaraz: Bye - Juncheng Shang - Nicolás Jarry - Sebastián Báez/Ugo Humbert - Casper Ruud - Jannik Sinner/Daniil Medvedev - Novak Djokovic/Alexander Zverev

Potential rivals of Casper Ruud: Bye - Corentin Moutet - Tomas Machac/Alejandro Davidovich - Alejandro Tabilo/Tommy Paul - Carlos Alcaraz - Jannik Sinner/Daniil Medvedev - Novak Djokovic/Alexander Zverev

Last season, he did not go too far, so in this edition, Carlos has room for improvement in the Masters 1000 where he fell to a strong Grigor Dimitrov in three sets. If he performs as expected in his first match, Juncheng Shang will be his first opponent in Shanghai, whom he defeated in Australia earlier in the season. This event could witness the first hard court clash between Alcaraz and Jarry, although complications would arise in the quarterfinals against Casper Ruud, an opponent he has defeated in all four of their encounters.

The Norwegian is not in his best form. In addition to the notorious defeat in the Davis Cup against the world number 168, he also had a negative result in his first match in Tokyo, so he will need to significantly improve his performance to advance through the early rounds in Shanghai. The Sinner vs. Alcaraz, one of the most anticipated matchups for the fans, could happen in the semifinals, with the winner possibly facing Novak Djokovic if the Serbian progresses on the other side of the draw. In conclusion, although the upper section is filled with big names, Alcaraz's path should not be overly complicated until the semifinals.

Third quadrant

Potential rivals of Andrey Rublev: Bye - Jakub Menskin/Pedro Martínez Portero - Francisco Cerúndolo - Alexei Popyrin/Grigor Dimitrov - Novak Djokovic - Alexander Zverev/Taylor Fritz - Jannik Sinner/Carlos Alcaraz/Daniil Medvedev

Potential rivals of Novak Djokovic: Bye - Alex Michelsen/Yunchaokete Bu - Flavio Cobolli/Stan Wawrinka - Alexander Bublik/Frances Tiafoe - Andrey Rublev/Grigor Dimitrov/Alexei Popyrin - Alexander Zverev/Taylor Fritz - Jannik Sinner/Carlos Alcaraz/Daniil Medvedev

Although he arrives in a slightly different position than usual, Novak always emerges as one of the favorites for the trophy, especially given his four previous tournament wins. The fourth seed in Shanghai has good early-round opponents to get into a rhythm, accumulate playing time, and adapt to the pace of the Chinese event.

The potentially tough quarterfinal against Popyrin, who defeated him in New York, or Grigor Dimitrov, poses a particular challenge for Djokovic, who should already be in form by then. The challenges continue, with potential semifinal clashes against the likes of Zverev or Fritz, leading to a possible final against Sinner, Alcaraz, or Medvedev.

Fourth quadrant

Potential rivals of Taylor Fritz: Bye - Aleksandar Kovacevic - Brandon Nakashima/Jiri Lehecka - Jack Draper/Holger Rune - Alexander Zverev - Novak Djokovic - Jannik Sinner/Carlos Alcaraz/Daniil Medvedev

Potential rivals of Alexander Zverev: Bye - Qualy - Jordan Thompson/Tallon Griekspoor - Karen Khachanov/Lorenzo Musetti - Taylor Fritz - Novak Djokovic - Jannik Sinner/Carlos Alcaraz/Daniil Medvedev

The lower half holds an intriguing division with various possibilities. Beyond Taylor Fritz and Alexander Zverev, Holger Rune's name stands out as he has the potential to make a statement to recover from a season of mixed results. Other opponents like Jack Draper, Lorenzo Musetti, or Karen Khachanov could also step up. If none of this materializes, according to rankings, it is logical that Taylor Fritz and Alexander Zverev will meet in the quarterfinals, a matchup generating great anticipation and where the American leads 6-5 (including their latest victory in the Laver Cup).